The Endgame — will Trump leave the US before 20 January?
We are in the very endgame of the Trump presidency. How will it play out?
This is a speculative view that I wanted to bring to light as I have not seen it described anywhere else.
We know this: Trump has broken all conventions that normally applies to the US presidency and the traditional political decorum of the Republic. He ultimately shows no regard for the party that brought him to office or the country of he is the leader, what he cares about is himself.
It seems he is desperate to stay in power, to the extent that he has pushed an unprecedented aggressive misinformation campaign of election fraud, filed numerous lawsuits, and even instigated a storming of the Congress in order to prevent the ceremonial confirmation of the election.
Why is he so hell-bent on staying in office that he is open to breaking all the rules? Some argue it is about his personality and his ego. I think it is simpler — its about self-preservation.
Trump knows that he has a huge backlog of court cases and misdemeanours waiting for him the moment he leaves office. BBC lists a few here, and there are others that relate to abuse of office which may carry financial or legal repercussions.
Its obvious to all, including Trump himself, that he will soon be the subject of a cascade of lawsuits. Chances are that he may even end up in prison. He is 74 years old and he may have another decade or two to go which he likely prefers not to spend behind bars.
Knowing this, what would a rational actor do? He does have a handful of “get-out-of-jail-free” cards:
The first one is obviously to try to remain in office with whatever means possible. No need to list all the measures he has taken again. Only history will be able tell how close it was that these attempts succeeded. Perhaps the letter from the former secreaties of defence played a critical role, or what was said behind closed doors in relation to that conversation. However we can now consider this card spent.
The second get out of jail card is the Presidential pardon. There is a legal debate as to whether a president may pardon himself, which indicates that it may not be valid to do so. (Can still be tried of course). Additionally, it is unlikely that such a pardon can be all-encompassing so in all likelihood there would still be things he could be taken to court for.
That leaves the third get out of jail option. Which is to leave the country before the end of his term. Trump has stated that he will not attend the inauguration on January 20. So where will he be then?
My conclusion is that the rational thing to do if I were in Trumps shoes would be to haul my ass to Russia on January 19. Flee the country and not return.
It would not look good, for sure, but would he care? Its one of the few places where he cannot be reached by US justice, so it would keep him out of jail and allow him to continue his wealthy oligarch life in his final years. Agreed its not Florida but it need not be miserable — he will join other prominent exiles including Edward Snowden, Steven Seagal and Gérard Depardieu.
We know Trump has a special connection with President Putin, to the point that they spent several of their meetings without anyone else present, not even interpreters. Nobody besides the two of them knows what was discussed at these meetings. We only know there are many indications of Russian collusion surrounding Trump and that he has long standing business relationships with Russian oligarchs. And Putin would certainly enjoy the trophy!
Stockholm 8 Jan 2021
